Interview • 16.06.2026

When customs changes the rules of the game

Interview with Professor Dr. Christoph Tripp

 

E-commerce is undergoing a major transformation, particularly in terms of customs regulations. The newly introduced three-euro levy will take effect in the EU as early as this year, with standard customs tariffs set to follow. In an exclusive interview with DAKOSY Magazine, Christoph Tripp, professor of distribution and retail logistics at Nuremberg Technical University, discusses the implications for logistics models, administration, and the flow of goods.

About Professor Dr. Christoph Tripp

Professor Dr. Christoph Tripp teaches distribution and retail logistics at the Georg Simon Ohm University of Applied Sciences in Nuremberg. He has many years of practical and consulting experience in the retail and logistics industries and works as a trend researcher, consultant, moderator, keynote speaker, columnist, podcaster, and author (www.prof-tripp.de).

How much would you say that the topic of customs procedures ranks among the “top three” in e-commerce?

Customs processes now rank among the core strategic areas of e-commerce. The enormous surge in cross-border small parcels — 4.6 billion in 2024 and an estimated 6 billion in 2025, with about 90 percent originating from China — is forcing retailers and platforms to treat customs clearance, data quality, and compliance as top priorities. 

What exactly do customs processes need to accomplish?

Customs processes in e-commerce must be scalable, fast, and completely reliable. With billions of small shipments, accurate and automated tariff classification, digital documents, real-time data, and seamless integration with fulfillment and platform systems are absolutely essential.

How well do merchants have their customs processes under control?

Many merchants have optimized their customs processes, but a significant number still rely on fragmented systems, multiple service providers, and incomplete customs data. Studies show that customs data is often scattered, and standardization, classification, and compliance are not sufficiently professionalized. Retailers from third countries, in particular, frequently struggle with error rates and under-declarations. This leads to delays, additional costs, and increased risk for all parties involved. 

Could you give us your assessment of the significance of customs processing costs for the retail sector?

Logistics costs account for an average of 20 to 25 percent of net revenue in e-commerce. Of this total, approximately 50 percent is attributed to transportation, about 40 percent to warehousing, and roughly 10 percent to administrative order processing, which includes customs procedures. The administrative customs burden for small shipments is quite high in relation to the value of the goods. This increases the pressure to design customs processes that are cost-effective and resilient. This also applies to customs authorities, for whom the handling and inspection costs associated with small shipments are likewise disproportionately high. 

What impact do you expect the three-euro customs levy to have as of 1st July 2026?

On the one hand, the customs duty is intended to financially offset the disproportionately high resource expenditure by customs authorities in the area of small shipments. On the other hand, it is hoped that this will have a moderating effect on the steadily rising volume of small shipments from Asia. Marketplaces there are already responding by shifting away from the model of direct shipping from China via air freight toward their own merchant fulfillment solutions and local inventory concepts in Europe. For example, Temu intends to deliver up to 80 percent of its shipments from local warehouses this year. As a result, shipment consolidation via sea and air freight is becoming more attractive to avoid multiple customs duties per commodity class.

Can customs handle the additional administrative workload?

The example of Liège Airport clearly illustrates that customs authorities face a massive implementation deficit due to resource constraints. According to recent reports, only 0.006 percent of the shipments arriving daily at Liège Airport are subject to random inspections, and 30 percent of those are found to be non-compliant. Just as in Liège, customs clearance at the major airport entry points for small shipments from non-EU countries is caught in the middle: shipment volumes are currently so high that they are virtually unmanageable with the available resources.

Will items priced under three euros now disappear from the market?

The business model of Asian suppliers, which is based on the individual shipment of low-cost products, is coming under pressure due to fixed processing and inspection costs per shipment. If customs clearance costs three euros for an item priced under two euros, the low-price strategy is no longer viable. It is foreseeable that the platforms will respond with adjustments to their product ranges as well as gradual, modest price increases. In addition, it is expected that algorithmically fine-tuned purchase incentive systems will aim to encourage customers to fill larger shopping carts in order to offset the fixed customs costs. At the same time, providers will modify their logistics models. I anticipate that Asian platforms will retain their role as providers of inexpensive consumer goods, but they will increasingly rely on consolidated logistics and optimized pricing structures. 

The three-euro fee is only a temporary solution. Starting in 2028, the EU Customs Data Hub is set to serve as the basis for standard customs tariffs and the automated processing of all small shipments. Does this mean less work for customs officials is on the horizon?

First of all, the transformation process ties up additional resources needed to expand digital and human capacity, creating yet another bottleneck. Another critical issue is the lengthy implementation period. It will be another two years before the EU Customs Data Platform is launched, during which time more than 10 billion small parcels will be imported into the EU. The customs authorities at European airports can only hope that in the future, more attractive customs-related shipment consolidation will lead to some shift from air to sea freight and thus to a moderate reduction in the customs clearance burden at numerous European airports.

Does it make sense to introduce standard customs tariffs at a later date?

Clearly: yes. The proposed three-euro fee is intended as a temporary solution. While the flat-rate fee creates an administratively manageable structure in the short term, it does not replace the need for substantive differentiation and fairer assessment of small shipments that can afford regular tariffs. With the introduction of the EU Customs Data Hub, automated customs clearance for each individual shipment will eventually be possible, allowing for the collection of precise customs duties per item or commodity group. Such a system is fairer and also reduces incentives for undervaluation and the artificial splitting of shipments, which currently occur frequently in cross-border e-commerce.

What should we keep an eye on during the next 12 months?

With the introduction of the interim solution for customs clearance of small shipments, the previous duty-free threshold will be eliminated. Merchants, logistics service providers, and digital platforms must ensure their systems are technically prepared for the new duty structure in a timely manner.

Another key factor will be the ongoing development of the EU Customs Data Hub, for which technical interfaces are already being prepared. Merchants and service providers should adapt their IT processes, data quality, and product master data early on to avoid integration issues later on. Overall, 2026 will be a transitional year for customs, during which the course will be set for the final customs reform and its practical implications for European e-commerce.

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